Thursday, January 4, 2018

Last Game at Arrowhead

The Chiefs playoff game at Arrowhead is important for many reasons. The Chiefs are going for their first home playoff win since January 1994, Andy Reid is going for his first home playoff win since January 2006 and it could be the last home game for three legendary Chiefs.
The most obvious is Tamba Hali. Hali was the 20th overall draft pick out of Penn State in the 2006 NFL Draft. Hali has played in 177 games (157 starts) in his career for the Chiefs tallying 89.5 sacks. A Pro Bowler from 2011 to 2015 for the Chiefs, Hali played with a never ending motor. This made him a fan favorite. Ask any Chiefs fan and they will tell you Hali was held on nearly every pass play as he rushed around the outside chasing opposing quarterbacks for 12 years. Hali is no longer a stalwart on the Chiefs defense recording only one tackle in five games played in 2017. I doubt Kansas City brings Hali back for another season, especially at his 2018 salary cap hit of $9,395,834. Kansas City could cut Hali after the year and only have $1,708,334 in dead cap money.
Next up is Derrick Johnson. Johnson came to Kansas City with the 15th overall pick out of Texas in the 2005 NFL Draft. Now playing in his 13th season as a Chief, Johnson is the all time leader in tackles in franchise history (938). Father Time has caught up to Johnson this season, only tallying 48 tackles in 15 starts in 2017. Derrick was recovering from his second Achilles injury in 2017 and looked a step or two slow. Johnson is still a capable linebacker in coverage but has regressed significantly in stopping the run. Johnson is no longer the best middle linebacker on the Chiefs roster, that title belongs to second year pro Reggie Ragland. Now maybe Kansas City brings Johnson back for another season to play as a nickel linebacker and mentor to the younger linebackers, but it's going to be hard to do so at his salary. Johnson's 2018 salary cap hit of $10.25 million makes that situation difficult. If Kansas City cuts #56, the cap hit would only be $2.25 million, saving the Chiefs $8 million in the cap. 
Last but certainly not least Alex Smith. The Chiefs traded their 2013 and 2014 second round draft picks to San Francisco for Alex Smith in March of 2013. Smith had his best season as pro in 2017 (4,042 yards, 26 TD, 5 INT, 67.5% and 8.0 yards/attempt) for the Chiefs leading Kansas City to their first back-to-back AFC West Titles in franchise history. In Smith's five years as the Chiefs starting quarterback, the Chiefs went 50-26 and four playoff appearances. If you follow me on Twitter then you know I am one of the biggest Alex Smith supporters in the world. Two reasons why Smith is included in this blog: Patrick Mahomes and money.
Mahomes is the quarterback of the future in Kansas City and shows tremendous upside. Mahomes played well in week 17 at Denver with backups around him and I believe the Chiefs can win big with Mahomes at quarterback in 2018 and beyond. The second and bigger reason is Smith's 2018 salary. If the Chiefs keep Smith, it will cost them $20.6 million against the cap (it was only $16.9 million in 2017). Now Kansas City can cut Smith and save $17 million because Smith's dead cap hit would only be $3.6 million. The Chiefs could do a lot with an extra $17 million to improve the offensive line or the defense. Another option is trading Smith to another team and getting draft picks. With the way Smith played in 2017, the Chiefs might be able to get a low first round or second round pick for Smith. I have been a strong supporter for Alex Smith as the Chiefs starter in 2017 and letting Mahomes learn for a year behind him. That has happened. The only way Smith is back in 2018 is if he leads the Chiefs to the AFC Championship and has the Chiefs close to making the Super Bowl.

If Kansas City does cut bait with all three players in the offseason, the Chiefs will have an extra $32,687,500 in cap room. That is a lot of money that can be used to resign guys like Bennie Logan, Dustin Colquitt and Albert Wilson or to go out and sign a guy or two in free agency.

Sidenote: Dee Ford's cap hit for 2018 would be $8,718,000, but would have zero dead cap hit if the Chiefs cut him. That could give the Chiefs $41,405,500 in cap room. I doubt the Chiefs cut Ford unless his back injury is career threatening. 
Chiefs fans need to send these three Chiefs greats out with a roaring crowd Saturday against the Tennessee Titans. Appreciate what these three men did for the franchise. Thank you for everything you did for Chiefs Kingdom.

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